Friday 16th October
Thursday was the last of the very warm days this week that saw the thermometer rise to a maximum of 20.2C at 14.19, being 5.3C above my October average. The leading edge of the approaching weather front could be seen to the north at 18.00 that resulted in the cloud building and the temperature holding around 14C until just after 02.00, when it then began a steady descent as the cold front crossed our area with an air temperature of 10.1C by 08.00. The low was 2.6C above average.
The rain began, light at first, at 04.10 when it triggered the automatic rain gauge and was a little heavier around 05.20, eventually amounting to 4.2mm. The rainfall total for October, now half way through the month, stands at 21.6mm, just 21% of my 43-year record.
The wind made a significant change in direction during the early hours as the weather front arrived, backing into the northwest, where it will continue to come from over the weekend.
Friday at 08.00 revealed the receding edge of the weather front, with the cloud thinning, and the back edge clearly seen to the north with clear sky behind it. The sun broke thought at 08.40 as I finished this report.
The cooler air behind the cold front is still working its way across the country as the thermometer is still falling. The air stream is travelling around the northern flank of the large area of high pressure, close to Iceland, and travelling in a clockwise direction, as they do around an anticyclone, then arriving from the northwest.
The forecast pressure charts indicate that the ridge of high pressure is likely to give us a fine weekend, if chilly, with both maxima and minima below average for October. Looking ahead into next week it appears that the high pressure will elongate eastwards and then centre over Scandinavia and Russia that will see the wind back further to come from an easterly direction, continuing the cool flow of air.
As we get closer to Christmas, each year questions begin to be asked about the possibility of snow at Christmas, when it is two months away.
I attach the recent article on this subject from the Met Office.
Met Office issues verdict on when UK could face snow as temperatures set to plunge
The Met Office has provided an update regarding the prospects of a white Christmas across Britain this year. According to the national weather service,”for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it’s likely to snow”.
The forecaster explained: “We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December, with snow actually settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 – 2020 long-term averaging period).”
In terms of what constitutes a white Christmas, the Met Office clarified that for them to officially declare one, “a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of 25 December, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station”. The organisation added: “This is because it needs to be officially verified both for our climate records and also to provide consistency and certainty,”.
